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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

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