Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
